FY13 GDP grows at 5%
(The real GDP growth stands at
4.8% in Q4 of 2012-13 as against 4.7% in Q3 of 2012-13)
Economic
growth may rebound contingent on improved governance and concerted actions to
tackle supply side bottlenecks, enhanced public investments and fiscal
consolidation measures. There is urgency for addressing bottlenecks in coal,
power, road and telecommunication sectors to revive investment scenario in the
economy.
India’s real GDP growth
declined from 6.2% in 2011-12 to 5% in 2012-13. The GDP at factor cost at constant
(2004-05) prices in 2012-13 is estimated at Rs. 55,05, 437 crore as against Rs.
52, 43,582 crore in 2011-12. Whereas, the GDP at factor cost at current prices in the year 2012-13 is estimated
at Rs. 94,61,013 crore, showing a growth rate of 13.3% over the GDP for
the year 2011-12 at Rs. 83,53 ,495 crore.
Quarterly
GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices for Q4 of 2012-13 is estimated at Rs. 14, 70,782
crore with growth rate of 4.8% as against 4.7% in Q3 of 2012-13, 5.2% in Q2 of 2012-13 and 5.4% in Q1 of
2012-13.
Trend in growth
of India’s
real
GDP
(%)
Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from CSO
The estimated growth rates in economic activities
in Q4 of 2012-13 over Q4 of 2011-12 are financing, insurance, real estate and
business services at 9.1%, construction at 4.4%, community, social &
personal services at 4%, trade, hotels, transport and communication at 6.2% and
electricity, gas & water supply at 2.8%. The growth rate in agriculture,
forestry & fishing, is estimated at 1.4% while for mining and quarrying and
manufacturing growth is estimated at (-) 3.1% and 2.6%, respectively in this
period.
Recent pattern in
real GDP
growth
Components of India’s GDP
|
Share in GDP*
|
FY09
|
FY10
|
FY11
|
FY12
|
AE FY13
|
PE FY13
|
Q1 FY13
|
Q2 FY13
|
Q3 FY13
|
Q4 FY13
|
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
|
13.68
|
0.1
|
0.8
|
7.9
|
3.6
|
1.8
|
1.9
|
2.9
|
1.7
|
1.8
|
1.4
|
Industry (IIP)
|
18.93
|
4.01
|
10
|
8.5
|
2.6
|
1.9
|
1.1
|
-0.1
|
0.5
|
2.3
|
2.0
|
Of which
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
Mining &
quarrying
|
1.95
|
2.1
|
5.9
|
4.9
|
(-) 0.6
|
0.4
|
-0.6
|
0.4
|
1.7
|
-0.7
|
-3.1
|
Manufacturing
|
15.10
|
4.3
|
11.3
|
9.7
|
2.7
|
1.9
|
1
|
-1
|
0.1
|
2.5
|
2.6
|
Electricity,
gas & water supply
|
1.86
|
4.6
|
6.2
|
5.2
|
6.5
|
4.9
|
4.2
|
6.2
|
3.2
|
4.5
|
2.8
|
Construction
|
7.81
|
5.3
|
6.7
|
10.2
|
5.6
|
5.9
|
4.3
|
7
|
3.1
|
2.9
|
4.4
|
Services
|
59.56
|
9.6
|
10.1
|
9.8
|
8.2
|
6.6
|
7.1
|
7.6
|
7.6
|
6.6
|
6.5
|
Of which
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
Trade, hotel, transport & communication
|
27.82
|
9
|
9.7
|
10.3
|
7
|
5.2
|
6.4
|
6.1
|
6.8
|
6.4
|
6.2
|
Financing,
insurance, real estate & business services
|
18.72
|
12
|
9.7
|
10.1
|
11.7
|
8.6
|
8.6
|
9.3
|
8.3
|
7.8
|
9.1
|
Community,
social & personal services
|
13.01
|
12.5
|
11.7
|
4.3
|
6
|
6.8
|
6.6
|
8.9
|
8.4
|
5.6
|
4
|
Overall real GDP
|
100
|
6.7
|
8.6
|
9.3
|
6.2
|
5
|
5
|
5.4
|
5.2
|
4.7
|
4.8
|
Source: PHD Research
Bureau, compiled from CSO
Note: *Share in
GDP is as per provisional estimates of GDP for 2012-13, AE: Advance Estimates,
PE: Provisional Estimates
Gross National Income -- The Gross National
Income (GNI) at factor cost at 2004-05 prices is estimated at Rs. 54, 49,104
crore during 2012-13 as against the previous year’s first revised estimate of Rs.
51,96,848 crore. In terms of growth rates, the gross national income is
estimated to have risen by 4.9% during 2012-13, in comparison to the growth
rate of 6.4% in 2011-12.
Per Capita Net National Income --
The
per capita net national income in real terms (at 2004-05 prices) during 2012-13
is estimated at Rs. 39,168 as compared to the first revised estimates for
2011-12 of Rs. 38,037. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 3%
during 2012-13 as against 4.7% during 2011-12.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure
-- Private
Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at constant (2004-05) prices is estimated
at Rs. 34,66,723 crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 33,34,900 crore in 2011-12. At
current prices PFCE is estimated at Rs. 56, 94,362crore in 2012-13 as against
Rs. 50, 56,219 crore in 2011-12. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of
PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2012-13 are estimated at
56.8% and 59.6% respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 56.3% and
59.2% respectively in 2011-12.
Government Final Consumption
Expenditure -- Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at
constant (2004-05) prices is estimated at Rs. 6,59,236 crore in 2012-13 as
against Rs. 6,34,559 crore in 2011-12. At current prices GFCE is estimated at Rs. 11, 86,761crore in
2012-13 as against Rs. 10, 42,677crore in 2011-12. In terms of GDP at market
prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during
2012-13 are estimated at 11.8% and 11.3% respectively, as against the
corresponding rates of 11.6% and 11.3% respectively in 2011-12.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation -- Gross Fixed Capital Formation
(GFCF) at constant (2004-05) prices is estimated at Rs. 19,29,988 crore in
2012-13 as against Rs. 18,97,309 crore in 2011-12. At current prices GFCF is
estimated at Rs. 29, 64,677crore in 2012-13 as against Rs. 27, 49,072 crore in
2011-12. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and
constant (2004-05) prices during 2012-13 are estimated at 29.6% and 33.2%
respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.6% and 33.7%
respectively in 2011-12.
The private final consumption expenditure
as percentage of GDP at constant market prices stands at 54.7% in Q4 of
2012-13, 61.4% in Q3 of 2012-13, 61.8% in Q2 of 2012-13 and 61.1% in Q1 of
2012-13. The gross fixed capital formation as percentage of GDP at constant
market prices stands at 32.6% in Q4 of 2012-13, 32% in Q3 of 2012-13, 34.6% in
Q2 of 2012-13 and 33.8% in Q1 of 2012-13.
Select demand side indicators, as % of GDP (at constant market prices)
Item
|
Q1FY13
|
Q2FY13
|
Q3FY13
|
Q4FY13
|
Private Final Consumption Expenditure |
61.1
|
61.8
|
61.4
|
54.7
|
Government Final Consumption Expenditure |
11.0
|
11.0
|
12.1
|
11.2
|
Gross Fixed Capital Formation |
33.8
|
34.6
|
32.0
|
32.6
|
Warm regards,
Chief Economist
________________________________________________
PHD Research Bureau
PHD Chamber of Commerce and
Industry
August Kranti Marg, New
Delhi – 110016
Tel 91 11 49545454, Fax 91 11 26855450,
E mail – research@phdcci.in
Website www.phdcci.in
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